How Ukrainian Refugees Perceive the Conditions in Ukraine for Future Return.

It is estimated that almost 250,000 Ukrainians reside in one of the five Nordic countries, most of whom have collective temporary protection. Previous research shows that with time refugees return intentions tend to decline. A survey conducted as part of the NOR-RETIN project in 2024 shows that only 9 per cent of Ukrainian refugees holding collective protection in the Nordic countries say they want to return as soon as the war ends. This figure remains consistent across countries, despite the fact that the scope of integration and the welfare measures offered by individual Nordic countries differ considerably. This suggests that willingness to return must be interpreted also in light of the refugees' views of their home country rather than mainly in light of their integration in the host country only. Understanding return intentions is highly relevant both because the status of temporary protection is in fact temporary, and because Ukraine since long before 2022 has experienced a profound demographic crisis. Reluctance to return may be explained by macro-level conditions in both the host country and Ukraine. The afore-mentioned survey found that the factor most strongly associated with return intentions Ukrainian refugees in the Nordic countries, is the level of trust in the Ukrainian authorities; the lower the level of trust, the lower the desire to return. This paper uses the aforementioned survey findings as a basis for a qualitative investigation into how Ukrainian refugees think about returning home in light of their experiences in their host country. Issues addressed include their expectations of the Ukrainian authorities, the aspects of their home country that attract them, and the factors that make them reluctant to return. The paper reveals that Ukrainians in the Nordic countries are concerned about corruption, social inequality, and poor employment, business, and working conditions in Ukraine. Many also refer to the potential emergence of a social divide between Ukrainians who remained in the country during the war and those who went abroad. The paper is based on altogether 50 qualitative semi-structured interviews with 25 interviewees (8 interviewees in Denmark, 10 in Norway, and 7 in Sweden) conducted in two rounds (spring 2024 and spring 2025). This longitudinal research design made it possible to explore changes in interviewees situations and perceptions over time.