Understanding Regulators’ Preferences for Goal-Based Regulation: Individual, Organisational, and Sectoral Determinants.

In response to complex societal challenges such as demographic change, climate pressures, and emerging technologies like AI, governments are shifting from prescriptive, rule-based regulation toward adaptive, goal-based approaches. Understanding the shift toward this new tool in regulation requires attention not only to institutional design but also to the internal attitudes and capacities of those implementing policy: regulators in public agencies. As frontline actors in supervision and enforcement, regulators’ preferences and professional judgments critically shape the success of adaptive regulatory strategies. This study examines to what extent and how regulators’ preferences for goal-based over rule-based regulation are influenced by individual, organisational, and sectoral factors. At the individual level, we assess beliefs and attitudes toward risk and rule obedience; at the organisational level, perceived agency capacity; and at the sectoral level, the perceived fit of the sectoral context for a goal-based approach. Data are collected through a survey among regulators in the welfare domain, encompassing four sub-sectors with differing regulatory designs. Using multiple regression analyses, we explore how these factors enable or constrain adaptability, toward new tools, in supervisory practices.