Policy Advice for European Union Climate Governance: Tracing Institutions, Actors, and Knowledge Utilization Related to the ETS2 and the 2040 Greenhouse Gas Target

The EU has an extensive system for soliciting expert advice during the preparation of legislation. In the past two decades, a growing literature in EU studies has examined the institutions, actors, and operation of this landscape of policy advice. However, to date there has been little focus on how this advisory landscape interacts with individual policymaking processes over time. This is especially notable because these processes would be expected to have an especially important role for expert advice. To fill this gap, we examine two cases of the use of policy advice in the area of EU climate change policy: the creation of an emissions trading system for buildings and road transport (ETS2) and the setting of the EU’s greenhouse gas reduction target for 2040. These cases are both prominent examples of EU climate policy under the European Green Deal and would be expected to have diverging patterns of expert advice utilization. We trace how policy advice was constructed and how it influenced these policy processes, from policy formulation in the Commission to negotiations between the European Parliament and the Council. We do so through process tracing that draws on documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews with policymakers and stakeholders. We pay particular attention to how the increasing turbulence and growing resistance to climate policy following the 2024 European elections impacted the ways in which expertise was utilized in these processes. For the ETS2, the process would be expected to draw on long-standing systems of expertise, both within the Commission and in networks made up of interest groups, expert consultancies, and think tanks. The 2040 target would also be expected to be based on both internal Commission resources (for example, the PRIMES models, which underpin assumptions about future emissions) and external sources of information. The most prominent independent source may be the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, which was created in 2021 with the express mandate to provide scientific advice on the 2040 target. These findings will allow us to draw broader conclusions about policy advice in EU climate governance and how this compares to other policy areas.