Why Do Citizens Support Authoritarian Policies? Causal Evidence from the Salvadoran-Gang-Crackdown

Under what conditions do citizens support policies that undermine democracy? Existing research indicates how authoritarian actors use repression and information manipulation to consolidate power. Yet, we know far less about how authoritarian policy performance, through the provision of goods that citizens value, contributes to democratic backsliding. I argue that authoritarian policies restoring public safety in high-violence contexts can generate popular support by addressing citizens’ most pressing need: security. I test this argument by examining how the Salvadoran-Gang-Crackdown (SGC), an authoritarian policy implemented in 2022 in El Salvador to combat gang violence, affected public safety and attitudes toward the policy and government. First, I apply a Difference-in-Differences analysis using NASA’s Black Marble nighttime lights and phone mobility data as proxies for public safety. This approach allows me to estimate the SGC’s causal effect on public safety by comparing municipalities and census tracts with varying levels of gang violence and control. Second, I link the local safety changes induced by the SGC to fine-grained, geocoded survey data to assess how safety improvements shape attitudes toward the authoritarian policy and democracy. The results show that the SGC led to a significant increase in public safety and that local safety gains increased support for the authoritarian policy. This pattern indicates citizens’ willingness to support authoritarian actors when they address their needs. Taken together, the findings offer critical insights into the mechanisms through which authoritarian actors implement and sustain their rule in backsliding democracies marked by high levels of violence.