How Deliberative Mini-Publics Influence Policy: Evidence from Local Climate Assemblies in Germany

Deliberative mini-publics (DMPs), such as citizens’ assemblies and citizens’ juries, have gained increasing attention among politicians and scholars alike as promising instruments for involving citizens in political decision-making and addressing complex policy challenges such as climate change. The recent proliferation of DMPs across Europe has intensified scholarly interest in whether, and to what extent, these processes have an impact on public policy and legislation. However, much of the public and academic debate has been premised on a largely linear understanding of policy influence, according to which mini-publics formulate recommendations that can then be straightforwardly adopted by empowered actors or institutions. Such assumptions overlook the fact that policymaking unfolds in complex, contingent, and non-linear environments, in which almost no designed “intervention” produces direct or automatic policy effects. This paper addresses this gap by conceptualising policy impact as a context-dependent and dynamic outcome rather than a linear causal effect, drawing on insights from policy process research. Empirically, the paper examines the policy influence of a series of local climate assemblies in Germany conducted between 2021 and 2023. Based on qualitative data from desk research, an expert survey, and qualitative interviews, it demonstrates how the assemblies’ policy impact is shaped by the degree of connection and support vis-à-vis political and civil society actors, the presence of veto players, formal institutional rules and informal norms, ideational factors, and timing. The analysis shows that mini-publics operate in complex policy environments in which individual decision-makers often possess limited control and incomplete information, and in which multiple dimensions must align simultaneously for deliberative processes to influence policy decisions. By foregrounding the contingent nature of policy impact, the paper contributes to ongoing debates about the capacity of deliberative mini-publics to address climate change and to strengthen democratic governance.