Ethno-Regionalist Civil Society Organisations in the Contemporary EU: Explaining Their Territorial Positions

Ethno-regionalism denotes contestation by the ethnically, linguistically, economically, or otherwise distinct territorially concentrated communities vis-à-vis the controlling centre. Most literature has focused on ethno-regionalist parties and the content, framing, and salience of their territorial demands (Massetti & Schakel, 2021; Massetti, 2009; Elias et al., 2021; Mazzoleni & Mueller, 2017). However, from a historical perspective, processes of regional empowerment were initiated by various civil society actors before ethno-regionalist parties formalised their agenda. Ethno-regionalist civil society organisations (ERCSOs) are, together with ethno-regionalist parties and the regional electorates, the principal actors behind ethno-regionalist demands. Hundreds of ERCSOs currently exist in Member States of the European Union (EU), ranging from moderate student unions to clandestine paramilitary groups, with new ones emerging, defunct ones resurging, and many radicalising their demands. This contribution aims to explain the territorial positions of ERCSOs using regional- and country-level factors. It is based on a novel dataset comprising active ERCSOs across more than 20 regions from all geographical areas of the EU, encompassing any juridical form, size, internal decision-making procedures, broader socioeconomic agenda, or radicality of activism (n > 250). The dependent variable of interest – the ultimate territorial objective for the given region/community – is constructed as an original graduated measure (from heritage preservation through several stages of self-government to complete independence). To estimate the probability that an ERCSO adopts a particular territorial position (and shifts between them), a multi-level ordered logit model, estimated by maximum likelihood, is employed to account for regional- and country-level effects. The predictors include but may not be limited to the degree of achieved self-government, the number and territorial positioning of ethno-regionalist parties, aggregated data on regional voting behaviour, the level of trust in regional institutions, the presence and diffusion of a regional language, the relative economic status of the region, and indicators for short- and long-term economic development. Since ERCSOs’ territorial positions within a region may be interdependent, i.e. shaped by one another, a spatial/network autoregressive component is considered to distinguish the shared contextual effects from direct peer effects. The theoretical framework draws on relevant literature on civil society organisations (Pieterzak, 2024), social movements (Snow et al., 2019), and political geography (McCann, 2020) to formulate hypotheses on how various political, legal, institutional, and socioeconomic factors influence the territorial position of ERCSOs. This contribution systematically investigates what drives these neglected yet increasingly influential actors of ethno-territorial contestation in the contemporary EU.