New Asymmetries of Power and Democratic Exclusion in an Anticipatory Perspective: Evidence from the Portuguese Case

This paper examines how anticipatory uses of artificial intelligence (AI) in political communication contribute to new asymmetries of power and processes of democratic exclusion, focusing on the Portuguese case and the strategic practices of radical right parties. Drawing on the framework of Anticipative Studies of Democracy, the study conceptualizes AI-driven political communication as an anticipatory instrument that enables political elites to forecast voter behavior, segment electorates, and pre-emptively shape political preferences under conditions of uncertainty and electoral volatility. The research question is: how political elites deploy AI-based tools to monopolize voters in an anticipatory perspective, and with what implications for democratic inclusiveness and political competition. Empirically, the paper combines content analysis of party communication strategies, campaign narratives, and digital infrastructures with narrative analysis of electoral campaigns and media ecosystems in Portugal. Particular attention is given to the capacity of radical right actors to exploit data-driven anticipation to mobilize affective grievances, reinforce identity-based appeals, and marginalize alternative political imaginaries. This contribution main objective is discussing the normative implications of anticipatory asymmetries for democratic resilience, arguing that without institutional safeguards and democratic oversight, AI-driven anticipation may exacerbate democratic fragility rather than strengthen it. The expected results are that anticipatory AI practices tend to concentrate informational and predictive power in the hands of well-resourced political actors, thereby reinforcing elite control over political agendas and narrowing the space for pluralistic deliberation. While such tools may enhance campaign efficiency and responsiveness, they also risk deepening democratic exclusion by privileging opaque algorithmic logics over transparent political debate.