Anticipative Studies of Democracy and Democratization

Abstract

Recent electoral cycles, governance transformations and institutional stress tests in consolidated and emerging democracies have reinforced the relevance of anticipative approaches to the study of democracy and democratization. Political anticipation has evolved from a marginal analytical tool into a necessary framework for understanding democratic resilience, decline, and transformation under conditions of uncertainty, accelerated change and systemic risk. This panel focuses on Anticipative Studies of Democracy and Democratization as a research field that combines political anticipation studies and political theory, empirical political science, and political methodology. Drawing on the work of scholars such as Camelia Voinea (2021), Paula Espírito Santo (2024), Pierre Rosanvallon (2011), Riel Miller (2018), Roberto Poli (2019), the panel explores how anticipation shapes democratic governance, political participation, institutional design and political communication. Anticipation is understood here as a systematic capacity embedded in democratic systems: the ability of institutions, political actors and citizens to imagine, evaluate and prepare for multiple anticipation scenarios. In this sense, democracy is increasingly anticipatory by necessity, as it faces interconnected challenges such as geopolitical conflict, democratic backsliding, digital disinformation, AI-driven political communication, electoral volatility, climate-related governance pressures and security risks. A central concern of the panel is the relationship between anticipation and democratization processes. While anticipation can strengthen democratic resilience by enabling preparedness, inclusion and adaptive governance, it may also introduce new asymmetries of power, technocratic dominance or democratic exclusion if anticipatory tools are monopolized by elites or opaque algorithmic systems. This tension raises critical normative and empirical questions about how to build up anticipation scenarios and whose anticipation scenarios count. Expected Contribution to the Section This panel contributes to the section’s broader objective of advancing Anticipatory Studies in Political Science by positioning democracy and democratization at the center of Anticipatory-oriented research. It bridges political theory, empirical analysis and methodological innovation, reinforcing the role of anticipation as a core dimension of contemporary democratic governance. By integrating insights from political science, political anticipation studies, communication studies and AI-informed governance research, the panel aligns with the ECPR Research Network on Political Anticipation and provides a coherent framework for interdisciplinary dialogue at the ECPR General Conference 2026. References Espírito Santo, P. (2024), Anticipatory approach to war and agenda building: a content analysis study of Portuguese press coverage of the Ukraine war (2014–2023). Frontiers in Political Science. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2024.1341515/full Poli, R.. (2019) (Ed.), Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making. Springer. Miller, R. (2018). Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century UNESCO Publishing. Rosanvallon, P. (2011). Democratic legitimacy: Impartiality, reflexivity, proximity. Princeton University Press. Voinea, C. F. (2021). Artificial polity: Anticipatory modelling and simulation of political systems: Applications to democratic polities in Eastern Europe (Vol. 10, No. 3). EQPAM

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