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Anticipatory Democracy Between Old and New Crises

Democracy
Democratisation
Elections
Immigration
War
Climate Change
Communication
Electoral Behaviour
S05
Paula Espírito Santo
Universidade de Lisboa - Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas
Camelia Florela Voinea
University of Bucharest

Endorsed by the ECPR Research Network on Political Anticipation


Abstract

During the past decade and, especially during the past few years, Anticipatory Studies in Political Science and Political Methodology have been facing complex and unexpected economic, financial and military conflicts and geopolitical developments with long-term consequences for the international relations, peace and trade, and also for the AI technologies and cybersecurity impact on the social and political communication and environments all over the world. After the major global crisis in 2008-2010, Political Anticipation studies have been mainly focused on crises management, conflict resolution and social, economic and cultural impact of migration and climate change. However, latest developments concerning the war in Ukraine and its impact on both Europe and overseas regions have attracted the attention of foresight experts as well as political prediction studies. Nevertheless, the complexity of the political and social phenomena under the constraints of economic, financial, military developments require a more complex approach which could bring Political Anticipation research in an interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary view jointly with studies which focus on the economic and financial development dynamics as informed by AI-based technologies in vital areas like elections and governance, political communication and interaction, peace and war, risk and security. Our Section Proposal therefore suggests a general theme for our section proposal for ECPR GC 2026 which could offer a joint framework for research studies concerning the following issues, keeping an open perspective for new interesting approaches suggested by the potential panel proposals and participants: Panel #1 - Research Area(s). Anticipative Studies of Democracy and Democratization Latest elections, governance changes and specific political developments in democratic countries like, for example, U.S.A. and many countries in Europe, have provided insight on Anticipative Democracy research as a systematic way of configuring new and spectacular democratic evolutions. Anticipation becomes not only interesting, but necessary in global contexts and conflicts which could have a fast and dangerous trajectory unless more anticipatory instruments could help diminishing the tensions. Panel #2 - Research Area(s). Democracy Crises: Challenges and Management in Anticipative Democracy Research Economic issues have strongly and globaly impacted the democracies during the past two decades or more. From the global financial crisis in 2008 to the migration and climate change crises, democracies have often suffered stepbacks, while resilience to threats against democratic regimes seems hard to build in poor economic situations. Both Western and Eastern European countries have their own share of crisis associated with the war in Ukraine and also with the raise of populist and extreme-right phenomena. Anticipatory Democracy research finds these evolutions as a basis for including economic and financial studies for configuring and shaping the future and diminish security threats and risk (Richmond, 2025). Panel #3 - Research Area(s). Anticipative Democracy Research and the New Security Threats Anticipative Democracy studies start with the assumption of democracy as the essential basis for peace-aimed developments and conflict resolution in providing solutions to reduce and eliminate conflicts in the world. Foresight, strategic thinking, scenario development and many other ways of bringing potential pictures of the future into the anticipative research have inspired more approaches on AI-based industrial and economic as well as military developments aimed at strengthening the resilience of communities and democracy against war threats and cybersecurity threats (Espirito Santo, 2024) Panel #4 - Research Area(s). Anticipative Democracy Studies and the Challenges of Smart Communities Emergence Research on smart communities includes theories on anticipatory systems and the resilience against security risks by developing ML-based smart collective systems which are both reactive and reflexive and able to achieve resilience by means of internal capacity to anticipate and prevent actions which induce a high level of risk and adapt to the ways change occurs in various environments, that is, classic, hybrid or virtual. While previous and ongoing research on smart communities is mainly focused on employing AI and ML for knowledge and services management, there is an ever-increasing focus on research approaches addressing ways to achieving community solidarity and cohesion, tolerance, and cooperation by means of conveying a set of shared values which provide for attitudinal dynamics in small as well as large communities or societies (Voinea, 2025a, b). In Anticipative Democracy research this kind of approaches gained both theoretical and applicative strength and have lately attracted the attention of municipalities (Trujillo-Cabezas, 2025). Panel #5 - Research Area(s). Anticipative Democracy and the Horizontal Societal and Governance Architecture There are strong trends in the development of research on civic and political culture theories which address some closely connected areas like network governance (Torfing, 2012; Sorensen and Torfing, 2007), and public value co-creation in governance and public administration (Ansell and Torfing, 2021; Bryson et al., 2017; Grönroos, Strandvik and Heinonen, 2015; Voinea, 2023). These areas have proved a deep connection with the ways people perceive both democracy and governance as more participative in the advanced setting of the digitalised society, the ways they convey their perceptions, experiences, and contributions in their participation into public value co-creation in various domains from public services to organisational management and cultures. Panel #6 - In Anticipatory Democracy research (Bezold, 2010, 2128; Toffler, 1978), both conceptual and methodological research on the ‘desirable futures’ have roots in meaning and value co-creation. This panel offers a joint framework of studying the convergence of theories about how humans achieve the desirable futures, how they get to share values, beliefs and attitudes, and how they make the meaning of it in the hybrid and virtual environments. To this purpose, the panel suggests two perspectives: (1) the community and narrative as the social roots of building the desirable futures, and (2) the human mind and the imagination able to make sense of scenario development as the way to make both individuals and communities share the meaning of their visions about a common future. This panel brings together research approaches on the desirable futures from three distinct areas: (1) community foresight and scenario development in participatory communities in the hybrid and virtual environments, (2) cinematography and filmmaking, and (3) AI-based modelling and simulation of meaning and value co-creation. These panel areas provide support to complex approaches on Scenario Development covering disciplinary, multi-disciplinary, and interdisciplinary research, which might enhance new models able to explain meaning-making at social and political levels in virtual worlds. Beyond anticipatory approaches on democracy and democratisation, such approaches could reveal and explain how social and political life achieves its essential meanings in different kinds of worlds humans have never experienced before.
Code Title Details
P009 “Democracy Crises. Challenges, Management and the New Security Threats” View Panel Details
P036 Anticipative Studies of Democracy and Democratization View Panel Details
P277 How Would Communities Anticipate ‘Democracy’ as a Desirable Futures? View Panel Details
P339 Meaning-Negotiating Vs. Meaning-Making: Anticipatory Democracy Studies on the Political Resilience and Vulnerability of Societies as Hybrid Environments View Panel Details