Citizen Trade-Off Preferences in the Energy Transition and Their Association with Support for Energy Technologies

The transformation of energy systems depends on social acceptance across multiple levels, from broad energy transition goals to the implementation of local projects. While research at the project level suggests that acceptance arises from complex trade-offs rather than single drivers, there has been relatively little research examining these processes at the level of acceptance for different energy technologies (including solar, wind, hydropower, biomass, geothermal, gas, nuclear, and electricity imports). Existing studies suggest that both underlying values and political ideology play a role, but a systematic assessment across technologies remains limited. This study addresses this gap by examining how individuals’ energy transition priorities and ideological orientations jointly structure acceptance of different energy technologies. Using data from a 2024 survey experiment conducted in Switzerland, the analysis employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to elicit respondents’ priorities across key dimensions of the energy transition, including emissions, biodiversity, land use, energy imports, prices, and savings. These priorities are linked to technology-specific acceptance ratings using a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for repeated evaluations within individuals. The results show that technology acceptance is shaped by distinct value-based trade-offs rather than a simple renewable–fossil divide. Even among renewable technologies, acceptance varies systematically according to individuals’ priorities and political ideology. These findings highlight the multidimensional nature of technology acceptance and underscore the importance of considering both value-based preferences and politicisation when assessing public support for energy technologies.