The Missing Causal Link: How Aid Implementers Shape Conflict Dynamics

Humanitarian aid is a near-universal feature of contemporary civil wars. While such aid is intended to alleviate suffering, recent research shows that it can unintentionally exacerbate violence by creating valuable resources that both governments and rebel groups seek to capture. What these studies overlook, however, is that the violence-inducing effects of humanitarian aid are not uniform. Instead, they depend on which agencies implement aid on the ground. Drawing on a newly compiled geo-referenced dataset that integrates information on aid flows of the European Union, implementing agencies, and recipient regions, I employ a quasi-experimental research design. I demonstrate that humanitarian aid implemented by agencies with local headquarters or prior experience in conflict settings is associated with a lower risk of conflict escalation compared to aid delivered by externally based or inexperienced organizations. These findings underscore the importance of organizational embeddedness in local contexts for mitigating the unintended consequences of humanitarian assistance in conflict-affected areas.