The Importance of Political Opportunity Structures for Local Political Decisions on Wind Power Deployment in Sweden

Paper Proposal to the panel Interaction of Actors, Ideas, and Institutions in the Advocacy Coalition Framework. Political ambitions have emerged at multiple levels to expand the use of renewable energy, with wind power playing a central role in Europe’s energy transition. However, these ambitions encounter obstacles when they reach the local level, where the actual deployment of renewable energy infrastructure occurs. The deployment of wind power is, similar to other large-scale resource and land-use projects, a policy area characterized by a diversity of conflicting values and interests. This has resulted in local resistance and conflicts between project developers and local communities across Europe. The obstacles that wind power can face at the local level are evident in Sweden, where municipal elected officials have the right to block wind power projects through the municipal veto. This right is widely used. Between 2020 and 2024, 64% of the proposed projects were halted by the municipal veto. However, the municipal veto is not always exercised, and there are projects that have been completed with little or no disruption. Furthermore, deployment rates vary significantly, and municipalities with comparable size and geographical conditions do not necessarily exhibit similar patterns. This raises the question: why does wind power move forward in some places and not others? With a theoretical foundation in the Advocacy Coalition Framework, this article examines the importance of political opportunity structures (POS)—relatively stable features of the political context that create opportunities or constraints for actors—for political decisions on wind power deployment. According to theory within the field, POS can influence policy outputs by shaping which beliefs gain traction. These structures also shape actors’ room for maneuver. Rather than focusing on why actors hold certain beliefs, this article therefore examines the interaction between POS and the decisions being made. The article draws on a comprehensive dataset of 336 onshore wind power projects in Sweden that were finally decided between 2014 and 2024. Based on this data, the statistical significance of POS variables, such as political stability, on municipal decisions to approve, partially approve, or reject wind power projects is analyzed. Since all municipalities operate within the same national context, differences in decisions cannot be explained by the overarching institutional structure. This makes it relevant to examine the importance of POS at the local level, as these vary across municipalities. By doing so, the article advances theoretical understanding of how the local political contexts condition policy outcomes. It also provides policy-relevant insight into the factors on which wind power deployment depends.