Rational Choice Vote Models and Main Voting Patterns of Presidential Election in Mexico 2024

In June 2024, Mexico held one of the most consequential presidential elections in its contemporary history. For the first time, a woman was elected to the country’s Executive Office. The left-wing candidate from the incumbent party, MORENA, secured a decisive victory—receiving nearly 60 percent of the vote under a plurality electoral system. In a country shaped by a long-standing tradition of machismo and gendered social hierarchies, this outcome represents a significant shift within Mexican politics. This paper examines the Mexican electorate in the 2024 presidential election. Who voted for Mexico’s first female president? Is there evidence of gender-based voting? Which income groups constitute the core support base of the incumbent party, MORENA? To what extent were voters motivated by ideological considerations? Are new political cleavages emerging? Using data from the 2024 National Electoral Exit Survey, part of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, this study conducts a series of exploratory analyses to identify the primary voting patterns of this election. Additionally, I employ OLS, logistic, and conditional regression models to assess the presence (or absence) of rational vote-choice mechanisms, including issue voting and ideological voting.