Identity and Economy: A Settled Debate? The Drivers of Individuals' Territorial Preferences

Decentralisation is a salient issue worldwide. While many countries have devolved authority to regional governments, numerous attempts at recentralisation have also emerged. Given the growing importance of the vertical distribution of authority, this paper examines public opinion on the topic. Existing comparative research identifies identity and economic conditions as key drivers of individuals’ territorial preferences, yet most studies have focused on support for secession, leaving centripetal and status quo preferences relatively understudied. We argue that territorial identities and regional relative wealth jointly shape territorial preferences, but that these dynamics are asymmetrical and vary according to the institutional context of decentralisation. To test this argument, we draw on four data sources: a comparative survey of 13 democracies, the Norwegian Citizen Panel (NCP), the Spanish Centre for Sociological Research’s Monthly Barometer (CIS), and Brazil’s Images of the Federation survey. Our findings confirm the interactive effects of institutional context: territorial identities shape preferences differently depending on the degree of regional authority, while the influence of economic factors varies with the level of fiscal decentralisation. This paper makes three main contributions. First, it develops a theoretical framework linking identity and economic conditions to distinct territorial preferences. Second, it broadens the analysis beyond secessionist attitudes to include support for centralisation and institutional continuity. Third, it provides comparative evidence on the determinants of territorial preferences across 14 democracies.