Declining Middlepowerness: Italy’s External Energy Policy Amidst Rising Geopolitical Confrontation

Much International Relations literature has classified post-1945 Italy as a middle power, even if this “status” became contested in the post-Cold War period and is increasingly questionable due to the country’s persistent economic stagnation and loss of relative power. Italy’s external energy policy was a key constituent of its middlepowerness: while being firmly anchored in the Western alliance, Italy and its state-controlled companies developed extensive energy relations with Arab countries and the Soviet Union/Russia, thus paving the way for an autonomous foreign policy that is typical of middle powers (as opposed to foreign policy subordination to a dominant ally, which defines minor powers). The paper argues that recent geopolitical developments have challenged this crucial aspect of Italian external energy policy. Energy relations with Southern Mediterranean neighbours, such as Libya and partly Egypt, have been marred by instability and political crisis in the post-Arab Spring context. Confrontation with Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has led to the loss of a long-standing and highly significant energy partnership. Like other European countries, Italy has partly replaced Russian gas with imports of US LNG, thereby introducing another source of dependence on the United States. From a factor of foreign policy autonomy, external energy policy has thus become another aspect of Italy’s subordination to the United States. At the same time, Rome has tried to relaunch an autonomous foreign and external energy policy through the so-called ‘Mattei Plan’ for Africa, a strategic initiative that should deepen partnership with selected African countries in a number of sectors, including energy. Significantly, the plan has been named after Enrico Mattei, the founder of post-1945 Italy’s autonomous external energy policy. However, its limited funding and strategic significance are indicators of Italy’s waning power. The country’s decarbonisation efforts hold better promise in terms of reducing Italy’s dependence on fossil fuel imports, but at the same time create new dependences on foreign technologies and critical minerals. Furthermore, in terms of both innovation and speed of implementation, Italy can hardly be seen as a ‘leader’ in the low carbon transition; in fact, the Meloni government (in power since 2022) has been critical of existing green policies and delayed implementation. Through an analysis of strategic policy documents concerning external energy policy post-2022, the paper shows that Italy’s current energy policy reflects its waning middlepowerness and subordination to external powers such as the US and China, as well as to the effects of geoeconomic tensions between them.