Do Crises Change Access? Tenure, Insidership and Incumbency in EU Lobbying

Do crises change access patterns to EU policymakers, or do they reinforce the status quo? Exogenous shocks typically intensify the exchange of technical information between interest groups and policymakers. However, while lobbying activity increases during crises, the European Commission’s institutional capacity to process information remains constant. Meetings with the Commission are a crucial venue for information supply, especially because access is selectively granted by policymakers. This paper develops a broader understanding of lobbying under crisis conditions by investigating how the 2022 European energy crisis affected access to the Commission. During this period, EU policymakers were most likely to turn to insiders who could immediately contribute to addressing threats to energy security and supply. I argue that access to the Commission remains preferential and structured by pre-existing hierarchies, rather than being fundamentally reshaped by crisis dynamics. These hierarchies hinge on three factors: tenure (how long an organization has been lobbying), insidership (measured as meetings per year of registration), and incumbency (ownership or control of strategic energy infrastructure). I test my hypotheses using an original panel dataset of 14,750 lobbyist-year observations covering 2,028 organizations between 2011 and 2025, combining EU Transparency Register records with Global Energy Monitor infrastructure data. I employ zero-inflated negative binomial models to distinguish between the probability of exclusion from meetings and the intensity of access among those still admitted. Preliminary results indicate that access contracted as the 2022 energy crisis unfolded. Crucially, pre-crisis relational investments shape lobbying access under conditions of uncertainty. Insidership emerges as the most decisive predictor: relational trust, rather than organizational tenure, sustains access under conditions of stress. Incumbency increases the intensity of meetings but does not shield organizations from exclusion. Overall, the 2022 energy crisis did not trigger a wholesale restructuring of access patterns, indicating that crises do not fundamentally change access hierarchies; instead, the system absorbs the shock.