Citizen Reaction to Green Industrial Policy Projects

Abstract: This pre-registered survey experiment investigates how U.S. citizens react to green industrial policy investments in their states. We specifically compare the potentially differential effects of (1) renewable energy (RE) deployment investments (wind and solar farms) versus low-carbon technology manufacturing investments (EV and battery plants), and (2) neutral investment framing and partisan investment framing. Key Research Questions: The study examines how information about these investments af-fects: (1) citizen support and cost/benefit evaluations, (2) differential reactions to specific tech-nologies, (3) how partisan framing influences responses, (4) perceptions of personal exposure to investments, and (5) how perceived versus objective exposure affects investment assess-ment. Primary Hypotheses: We predict that RE deployment investments will generate more oppo-sition and perceived symbolic costs than manufacturing investments, while manufacturing in-vestments will be seen as providing greater material benefits. Wind projects are expected to provoke stronger reactions than solar. Partisan framing is hypothesized to increase polariza-tion, with Republicans showing stronger negative reactions. Research Design: The study employs a three-stage randomization with 6,000 respondents across four states (California, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio) with quota sampling for demographic representation. The four states were selected for their high IRA investment exposure and var-ying political contexts. Respondents are randomly assigned to either the RE deployment or manufacturing domain, then further randomized into control, neutral framing, or partisan fram-ing groups, and finally assigned to specific technology types (solar vs. wind, or EV vs. battery plants). Primary outcomes include overall investment support, material and symbolic cost/ben-efit evaluations, behavioral intentions, and perceived project distance. Data collection will take place January-February 2026.