Montenegro’s EU Accession: Between Domestic Polarization and Geopolitical Constraints

A small country without significant regional conflicts and already a NATO member, Montenegro appears to be the most viable candidate to become the next EU member. Yet despite formal progress in aligning with EU norms, its accession timeline has repeatedly slipped, raising doubts about the realistic prospects of membership by 2028. This paper examines the interaction between domestic political obstacles — including obstruction by pro-Serbian parties and fragmented cooperation between governing and opposition forces — and external geopolitical pressures that complicate the process. In 1997, the Montenegrin government broke with Belgrade and turned toward independence, achieved in a 2006 referendum, supported by 55.5% of voters. The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), formerly communists, had ruled since 1989 and, despite numerous scandals, maintained power while advancing EU integration and securing NATO membership. However, institutional capture, corruption, and economic stagnation gradually eroded public support, and the integration process slowed. The government’s adoption of a law on religious freedoms — perceived as confronting the influential Serbian Orthodox Church — ultimately tipped electoral support against the DPS in the 2020 elections. Since then, Montenegro has been governed by unstable coalitions. Although the current prime minister leads the populist, economy-focused Europe Now movement, the ruling majority also includes pro-Serbian, conservative, and at times pro-Russian parties. While no major political actor openly opposes EU membership, as accession becomes more tangible, questions regarding the commitment and consistency of certain parties have grown more pronounced. Some governing actors have initiated moves that risk undermining Montenegro’s progress. For example, the Parliament adopted a resolution on the Jasenovac concentration camp despite warnings that it could strain relations with EU member Croatia. Protests against a wastewater treatment plant — which led the Democratic People’s Party to withdraw from government — have further fueled concerns that Belgrade may seek to exploit internal divisions to obstruct Montenegro’s EU trajectory. Externally, a shifting global order adds further uncertainty to enlargement. Renewed great-power competition, China’s expanding presence in the Balkans, the continued though diminishing influence of Russia, and strategic recalibrations within key EU capitals all complicate the process. Reluctance among certain member states — notably France, which recently nearly blocked the closure of two negotiation chapters — may present obstacles even if Montenegro formally completes negotiations. Domestic political considerations in France, as well as in the Netherlands and potentially Belgium, have cast doubt on the likelihood of swift accession decisions. By analyzing party dynamics, EU negotiation reports, and member-state positions, this paper demonstrates how domestic polarization and geopolitical constraints intersect to shape a complex and uncertain path toward Montenegrin EU accession, contributing to broader debates on enlargement in contested geopolitical spaces.