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Institutions, social-economics and democracies through time: do changes lead to changes?

Open Panel

Abstract

This paper is a preliminary comparison of 50 countries through a period of 40 years (1970-2010), to explore if changes in political institutions and in social or economic factors through time transmute into changes in the level of democracies through time. To wit, differently from the mainstream we focus on the changes, not exactly on the institutions or social-economics simultaneous to each democracy. Hence, the data is organized and worked as a time series panel to allow for timed regressions and timed analysis: do previous institutions and characteristics in each country affect forthcoming levels of democracies (measured as Polity IV; Freedom House; Alavrez, Cheibub, Limongi and Przeworski)? Are changes in democracies linked to past changes in countries organization and development? Considering timed effects is a good way to start improving that research field in order to escape from the problem of what comes first – democratization or development, democratization or institutional engineering? Also, additionally to the main analysis we propose segmented models to differentiate institutional and socio-economical details between young and older democracies, high or low level democracies, from one to other geographic continent.