The paper addresses the increased unwillingness of NATO to promote political change beyond its borders through the spread of democracy in its Eastern neighbourhood. The strategic shift is observed in the Alliance’s policies from enlargement to partnerships as a more flexible and less imperative way of exerting external influence. The explanatory model is a novel application of neoclassical realism coupled to a Gilpinian conception of dynamics of power as independent variable which is necessary to understand a world order which is hardly experiencing any change in polarity. As material factors cannot fully account for decline of democracy promotion policies within NATO, geopolitical lessons among the major NATO powers within the strategic ‘tiers’ (globalists; regionalists; article 5''ers) is added as intervening variable. Hence, there are three variables in the causal chain, which are used to structure the project: dynamics of power, geopolitical experience and change in policy. The shift in NATO''s external policies in the Eastern neighbourhood (especially: Georgia and Ukraine) stands out in clear contrast to NATO’s continued willingness and ability to promote democracy and stability in the Western Balkans. Using congruence-testing, the paper offers insight into how the relative rise of Russia is mediated into foreign policy change qua NATO’s three ‘tiers’.
