The European Union in a Changing World

As Europe enters 2026, the European Union stands at a crossroads, confronted with a series of profound and interlinked challenges. The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, together with the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and renewed threats of American disengagement from Europe, has reignited debates over Europe’s capacity to sustain support for Ukraine and to redefine its own security architecture. Transatlantic relations are experiencing their most profound strain in decades, and new European voices - such as Giorgia Meloni’s - are increasingly being heard in Washington. The recent wave of far-right populism has been partially reversed in some member states, such as the Netherlands, yet the spectre of a more right-leaning Europe persists. Eurosceptic forces have recently won elections in Czechia, though it remains uncertain how this outcome will shape the country’s stance within the Union. Meanwhile, France and Spain find themselves on the verge of ungovernability, further underscoring the fragility of domestic political stability across the continent. At the same time, the EU appears to be losing momentum in its leadership of the green transition and is falling behind in the accelerating digital transformation, where questions of technological sovereignty have become increasingly urgent. Against this backdrop, the Union must also ask itself whether relying on its traditional role as a regulatory power is still sufficient in a rapidly shifting global environment - or whether new instruments of strategic and technological agency are required to safeguard its influence. These developments also raise questions about how European integration is communicated to citizens and how EU institutions interact in times of heightened external and internal pressure. Collectively, they invite reflection on the structural resilience of the European project and the prospects for a more strategic and geopolitical Union.