The 2024 European Parliament Elections in Southern Europe: Reassessing the National-European Political Dynamics

Abstract

In June 2024, European Union (EU) voters will elect new members to the European Parliament (EP), marking a significant moment in the wake of transformative events like the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. These events have underscored the need for a closer political union, reshaping relationships between member states, the EU, and domestic and international policies. Anticipated as groundbreaking, the upcoming EP elections may witness a departure from the traditional grand coalition involving Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Socialists. There is speculation about the Christian Democrats forming an alternative centre-right coalition with Conservatives and possibly the sovereignists of the 'Identity and Democracy' EP group. Amid this evolving landscape, critical research questions arise: What are EP elections a case of, and how can we interpret and predict voter and party behaviour? Addressing these questions becomes crucial for navigating the uncertain future and understanding party strategies that balance supranational responsibilities and responsiveness to voter demands, particularly in the context of subsequent national elections. The conventional second-order-election approach, requiring a clear distinction between national and European politics, has become somewhat obsolete due to the increasing intertwining of the two arenas. A dynamic connection persists in both national and EP elections, where the popularity of the national government remains a key factor. In response to this context, this panel aims to reevaluate the relationship between national and European politics, updating theoretical frameworks to the current political climate. The focus is on the Southern European region, chosen for specific reasons. Firstly, the region's intense EU dimension in national political debates makes it an ideal case for investigating reciprocal dynamics across national and EU politics. Secondly, Southern Europe's electoral instability, heightened by economic challenges and the rise of radical parties, offers insights into party system dynamics across multiple governance levels. Thirdly, the region's high government instability, influenced by the 2019 EP elections, emphasizes the theoretical link between EP elections and national governments. The prominence of Southern Europe gains further significance given the potential coalition changes on the horizon. If a centre-right coalition, as speculated, becomes a reality, the results of parties like Brothers of Italy, Vox in Spain, and Greek Solution will play a pivotal role in determining the coalition's viability in the X EP legislature. We welcome a wide range of contributions investigating the 2024 EP electoral results, including but not limited to case-studies on single Southern European countries, regional analysis, and comparison between Southern Europe and the rest of the EU. Preference will be given to contributions focusing on the dual dynamic link between the national and the EU political dimensions.

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