Climate Clubs and the Paris Agreement: Complementary or Conflicting Governance?

Abstract

As international efforts to meet the 1.5°C target stall, climate clubs—voluntary coalitions of countries pursuing coordinated climate action—have proliferated as a prominent governance mechanism. From the Clean Energy Ministerial to the Powering Past Coal Alliance and the Global Methane Pledge, these arrangements promise to accelerate implementation of Paris Agreement pledges through economic incentives, normative pressure, or both. This contrasts with earlier cases regarded as competitors to the UNFCCC process, such as the Asia-Pacific Partnership. Yet a critical question persists: do climate clubs complement or undermine the UNFCCC regime? This panel brings together research examining the institutional interaction between climate clubs and multilateral climate governance. We conceive of climate clubs along three dimensions: First, "normative clubs" organizing around shared policy commitments, which have proliferated widely, with over 40 cases spanning intergovernmental cooperation on promoting renewable energy and electric vehicles or phasing out fossil fuels. Second, “bargaining climate clubs” referring to political dialogue forums, such as the G7 and G20, which sometimes put forth climate-related statements. Third, First, "economic clubs" offering material benefits to members (carbon pricing mechanisms or green technology), which remain a theoretical concept with the exception of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as a “de facto” case. The panel addresses key questions: First, how do climate clubs interact with the UNFCCC regime? Do they serve as stepping stones toward deeper multilateral commitments, or do they fragment climate governance? Second, what determines the legitimacy of these new governance arrangements? Third, how effectively are they closing the ambition-implementation gap? By systematically assessing climate clubs across cases and contexts, this panel addresses a significant empirical gap while contributing to broader debates on complex, polycentric climate governance. The panel papers collectively address these questions through diverse empirical approaches. Paper 1 examines the Global Methane Pledge's institutional and substantive interactions with the UNFCCC, revealing patterns of detachment and integration. Paper 2 provides comprehensive evidence from 41 normative clubs showing their evolution from competition to complementarity with the Paris Agreement. Paper 3 analyses the Breakthrough Agenda's effectiveness and fairness in industrial decarbonization, focusing on legitimacy through UNFCCC linkages. Paper 4 explores how climate clubs reshape power dynamics for African states, examining risks of marginalization versus opportunities for strategic leverage. Paper 5 compares G20 and East Asia Summit outputs with Paris commitments, identifying conditions under which informal organizations complement or conflict with multilateral frameworks.

Title	Details
The Global Methane Pledge: Complementing or Fragmenting the UNFCCC?	View Paper Details
From Competition to Complementarity: Evidence from 41 Climate Clubs on How They Align with the Paris Agreement	View Paper Details
International Cooperative Initiatives and Global Climate Cooperation in the Era of Polycrisis: An Analysis of the Breakthrough Agenda	View Paper Details
African Climate Multilateralism in the Era of Climate Clubs: Marginalization or Strategic Leverage?	View Paper Details
More Than Talking Shops: Informal International Organizations in the Global Climate Regime Complex	View Paper Details