African Climate Multilateralism in the Era of Climate Clubs: Marginalization or Strategic Leverage?

Africa occupies a paradoxical position in the global climate regime: it accounts for less than 4% of global CO₂ emissions, yet is one of the continents most exposed to the impacts of climate change. According to the IPCC, climate-related economic losses could reach 5 to 10% of African GDP by 2050 in several regions, while African countries receive less than 5% of global climate finance flows, despite estimated needs of more than $250 billion per year for adaptation and mitigation. Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, international climate governance has undergone a transformation marked by the rise of climate clubs, multilateral mechanisms that aim to accelerate climate action outside the universal framework of the UNFCCC. Both intra-African and global, these mechanisms fundamentally influence international climate governance by acting as strategic multilateral levers. Based on a qualitative and documentary analysis of the positions of the African Group Negotiating Team (AGN), the strategies of the African Union (Climate Strategy 2022–2032) and the main climate clubs (European CBAM, green hydrogen partnerships, climate finance coalitions), this paper analyses how these mechanisms are reconfiguring the balance of power in climate multilateralism. Climate clubs tend to strengthen the normative and technological capacities of the major powers, while accentuating the asymmetries in power, institutional capacities and knowledge production faced by African states. They pose both a risk of fragmentation of the multilateral climate regime and a conditional strategic opportunity for Africa, provided there is enhanced coordination within the AGN and alignment with African priorities in terms of development, green industrialisation and climate justice. Ultimately, the study highlights the growing tensions between multilateral universality and selective governance, revealing climate as a central field of contemporary geopolitical competition.