Introduction to Process Tracing

This course aims to give the you an understanding of the foundations of process tracing methods. By the end of it, you should have the practical insights and research tools to be able to use PT in your own research.

PT is a methodological tool is that enables the researcher to study more-or-less directly the causal mechanism(s) linking an independent variable (or set of variables) to an outcome, allowing us to open up the ‘black box’ of causality itself.

In political science methodology, PT is arguably the only method that allows us to study causal mechanisms, allowing us to understand how an X (or set of X’s) produces Y instead of simply studying correlations and associations. It is, therefore, an ‘…invaluable method that should be included in every researcher’s repertoire.’ (George and Bennett 2005:224).

Day 1
We differentiate PT from other methods; including large-n quantitative, frequentist methods, and small-n methods such as analytical narratives, comparative case studies, and congruence. Here we define PT by the interest in studying causal mechanisms in single case studies, and discuss the three variants of PT: theory-testing, theory-building, and explaining outcome PT.

Day 2
We look closely at what causal mechanisms are and go into some detail about the ontological and epistemological assumptions underlying PT. We talk about the causal mechanism as made up of entities engaging in activities ensuring the  productive continuity that we are interested in.

Day 3
We talk about 'concepts' and their causal attributes in PT. To give you an idea of the type of question we aim to answer, think about the following in relation to the democratic peace theory: What is it about democracy that causes peace (i.e. what are the causal properties of this concept)?

Day 4
Dedicated to causal mechanism in practice. We go into more detail about how to draw a causal inference on the basis a of single case study, and how to execute a PT project.

Day 5
We make time for a maximum of five presentations of your own causal mechanisms and PT projects. We go into detail on case selection, generalisation, and the (im)possibilities of combining PT with other methods.

The course offers insights into the recent debate surrounding the role of causal mechanism in political science, and gives you all the basics regarding the process tracing method.

Some background knowledge of qualitative case study methods would be helpful, including a rudimentary understanding of set-theory and the possibilities and limits of comparative case studies.

If you are unfamiliar with the debate between scholars who argue that there is only one logic of scientific inquiry applicable to qualitative and quantitative research projects (e.g. King, Keohane and Verba, 1994) and scholars who contend that there are important differences between quantitative and qualitative methods (e.g. George and Bennett, 2005; Brady and Collier, 2010; Mahoney, 2008) I suggest skimming the Brady and Collier edited volume, in particular chapters 1, 2, and 9.