The Role of Public Scandals in the Election Decision – Evidence from Southern Germany

The case of a public scandal right before general elections in southern Germany, involving the misuse of taxpayer’s money through Members of the Bavarian State Parliament, provides evidence on electoral decision making in multiparty systems. Due to the Bavarian electoral system (mixed-member proportional representation with open party lists), the effects of the scandal can be evaluated at the party and candidate level, comparing affected and unaffected electoral districts and candidates. Central questions involve, first of all, the effect on voter turnout: Public scandals should decrease participation especially when politicians from opposing political camps are mutually involved. Second, candidates’ individual reelection prospects are evaluated comparing effects on shares of first and second vote. The electoral system thus provides for the rare case of a measure for specific candidate effects. Overall, this quasi-experimental evidence therefore contributes to existing theories of electoral decision making and sheds light on the behavioral foundations of voting.