German arms export policy has long been considered one of the most restrictive in the world. Tight restrictions especially applied to Non-NATO respectively Non-EU members, so called third states. In addition, special restraint was exercised regarding the export of major weapons systems. But since 2005 this “export taboo” does no longer apply. Several third states have been supplied with Leopard battle tanks for which export licenses have been repeatedly denied in the past. To explain this fundamental change two approaches, derived from IR theory, are tested in a least likely case design. The findings suggest that the official German explanation - stressing the role of security issues – is at most a supportive reason for the observed change. The actual trigger is identified in the worsened economic situation of the German weapons manufacturers. The paper hence provides insights into the changing hierarchy of forces driving German foreign and security politics.
