Where Do Right Populist Parties Stem From? A socio-evolutionary approach accounting for the variance of electoral fortunes of right populist parties in Western Europe

The breakthrough of right populist parties at the federal level haunts almost all western-European democracies. Despite their rhetoric resting on various pillars, the analysis of voter preferences and electoral campaigns shows that only the anti-immigration stance of right populist parties is not only a necessary, but a sufficient condition for their breakthrough. Clear-cut right populist parties should thus best be understood as anti-immigration parties. Drawing on the framework of socio-evolutionary theory emphasizing a strict hierarchy between variables triggering social mechanisms, I argue that mainly one independent variable accounts for variation with their electoral success: the interaction and especially the campaigning strategies of established, moderate parties on immigration matters. Using reports in quality newspapers mirroring these debates, I compare Germany and Sweden since the early 1990s in a most similar case design. A first glance at the data shows higher salience of and polarization over immigration-related topics in Germany, while lacking politicizing of immigration issues during federal election campaigns; in contrast, polarization in Sweden appears lower, but immigration showed up as a salient topic in the federal election of 2002. The Swedish right populists accessed the Riksdagen in 2010 (crossing the 4% threshold with 5.7%), while its German counterparts – taken together – remain rather stable at federal elections at around 2% (5% threshold). The prime mechanism preventing the breakthrough of right populist parties is – this is my thesis – not established parties’ avoidance of politicizing the immigration-issue, but the avoidance of doing so during federal electoral campaigns. The pivotal role of federal election campaigns can be well accounted for under the auspices of socio-evolutionary theories on diffusion-effects and the dynamics of group solidarity. My paper presents first data backing up my hypothesis, as much as an elaborate explanation for this social mechanism. I conclude with discussing further steps of research.