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The Spanish Policy Mood, 1978 – 2012

John Bartle
University of Essex
John Bartle
University of Essex
Lluis Orriols
Carlos III-Juan March Institute of Social Sciences
Agusti Bosch
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Abstract

The concept of the `policy mood' has been developed to understand the role of preferences in election outcomes in mature democracies. In this paper we apply the concept to post-Franco Spain using longitudinal data gathered between 1978 and 2012. Our estimates un-cover a left-right dimension and show that the Spanish electorate have steadily moved rightwards over this period. This movement is apparently driven by both economics and the policy direction of the government. The rightward movement of the Spanish electorate, moreover, helps explain the rise of the right-wing People's Party.