Rise of China – Decline of the US? Effects of a (Hegemonic) Shift in Power on World Capitalism and the International Financial Order

In my presentation I will argue that US-hegemony is not endangered by the economic rise of China as long as Washington maintains its central role in the international financial order. First of all, I provide some historical background by living a comprehensive illustration of both countries’ analogous development since the end of WWII, which over time resulted in the formation of bilateral interdependencies and imbalances that eventually reached its climax during/after the financial crisis in 2008/09. Hence, in a more theoretical analysis I subsequently present key arguments of the ‘world-system’-approach whose scholars either turning the exploitive nature of centre-periphery-relations upside down (e.g. Wallerstein) or contrariwise believe that it will bring forth a totally new and peaceful kind of hegemony which will stand in stark contrast to the former US-rule (e.g. Arrighi). Yet, both academic factions share a (Neo-)Marxist/ Braudelian line of argument and conceptualize hegemonic succession as an historic inevitability which is dominated by finance-capital and the interest to keep the worldwide accumulation-process profitable. Hereafter, I am contesting the assumptions of China’s forthcoming hegemony by considering counter-arguments based on Susan Strange influential concept of ‘structural power’. I particularly show that - even though a shift in (economic) power may take place - a hegemonic transition to China is strongly limited due to America’s centrality in the international economic/monetary order (e.g. role of the dollar as an international reserve currency) and given the fact that Beijing followed a tremendously export-based developmental model in order to maintain high growth rates and avoid domestic social strive. However, in the end it might be the US itself which will destroy its supremacy and accelerates the ongoing relative shift of power to the East by extensively misusing its privileges/power.