Where, When and for Whom does it Matter Who is in Power?

One factor believed to be related to the waning of partisanship, is the presumed decreasing differentiation between political parties. In some countries, mainstream political parties seem to have become very alike, and as a result voters find it hard to differentiate between the major political parties. This reduces their party attachment and stimulates individual level volatility. When this holds, election outcomes will be less affected by either promises or past performances of political parties. In this paper, we will answer the question to which extent individual level factors and system characteristics explain the perceived importance of ‘who is in power’. When voters think that it does not matter much who is in power, their willingness to vote may decrease and their cynicism about politic will increase. The first aim of this paper is to describe the perceived importance of who is in power, in various countries and over time. The second aim is to explain differences between citizens, countries and over time. We expect that the perceived importance of who is in power is determined by the differences voters may perceive between parties. Educational attainment and individual political interest are expected to be the major factors explaining the ability to see differences between parties. Using Comparative Party Manifesto Data and aggregate perceptions of the policy positions of parties, we will test whether the perceived importance of who is in power is affected by characteristics of the party system. Obviously, party system characteristics are correlated with electoral system characteristics; thus, the impact of electoral system characteristics will be studied as well. The data come from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) modules 1-4. Where necessary and possible, CSES data will be complemented with information from other sources (Comparative Manifesto Project). The data will be analyzed using multilevel modeling.