The Limits of China’s Rise: An analysis of Southeast Asia-China Relations in terms of Structural Power

This paper analyses the “Rise of China” in Southeast Asia in terms of structural power. Many common arguments on the “Rise of China” claim that due to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) increasing economic and military capabilities – Chinese hard power – an unstoppable power shift is occurring in Asia in China’s favour. Some argue that Southeast Asia – a region without a great power of its own – is particularly vulnerable if power and the regional supremacy are shifting from the United States (US) to the PRC. The increasing multilateralism of the PRC – e.g. in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) or the East Asia Summit (EAS) – is often used to argue for the increasing influence and aspirations for leadership by the PRC in Southeast Asia. However, the argument of this paper is that the Chinese foreign policy is still lacking assertive leadership in the region as well as the ability to force an alternative regional structure and value system upon its Southeast Asian neighbours. In quite the opposite way China accepts the leading role of ASEAN in the regional multilateral forums like the ARF and EAS and a regional system strongly influenced by ASEAN ideas and norms. This influence is perceivable in the success of the ASEAN countries to bring great powers as diverse as the EU, India, Russia, China and the US into the EAS and to convince them to sign ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) as a membership requirement. Thus it can be argued that despite China’s increasing hard power in terms of military and economic capabilities the PRC is still lacking the sufficient structural power to dominate the region. Rather the developing regional structure is strongly influenced by ASEAN ideas and initiatives and thus plays into the hands of ASEAN.