Spatial Interdependence and State-Formation: Democratic Diffusion and the Length of Independence

The research about democratic diffusion is impressive and indicates that diffusion is an important explanation to democratization. However, one neglected aspect is the relationship between state-formation and democratic diffusion. This paper presents therefore theoretical discussions and empirical analyses about the importance of length of independence for the effects of democratic diffusion. Lehtinen (2014) shows that new states are affected by democratic diffusion in a high degree, while Denk & Anckar (2014) conclude that length of independence affects the statistical significance of the conditions for democracy. However, neither of these studies analyses the relationship between the length of independence and the effects of democratic diffusion. The aim of this paper is therefore to empirically investigate whatever the length of independence also affects the significance of democratic diffusion. In the first step, the paper develops four hypotheses about length of independence and democratic diffusion: a) states are more receptive for democratic diffusion when they are new than later, the effects of democratic diffusion therefore decreases with the length of independence, b) the effect of democratic diffusion increases with the years of independence as new states gets more exposed to diffusion, c) the effects of democratic diffusion have decreasing effects after an critical period where the effects are high, and d) political regimes are affected by democratic diffusion whatever the length of independence. These four hypotheses are developed from theoretical discussions and previous studies about democratic diffusion. In the second part of the paper, the hypotheses are empirically tested with econometric analyses based on assumptions about diffusion by geographic proximity and functional networks. These results are expected to provide insights about how spatial interdependence by diffusion is related to state-formation, which is a topic that have been overlooked in both research about spatial interdependence and state-formation.