Campaign Dynamics of Mobilisation in German Elections, 2005 – 2013

In the process of partisan dealignment turnout has been declining over the past decades and social inequality in electoral participation has been on the rise in many advanced democracies. While this has been considered as a major threat to democratic principles such as accountability and equal representation, election campaigns have been regarded as one potential solution to the problem. The effectiveness of campaign mobilization has been intensely studied, in particular, by means of large-scale field experiments. Although these studies seem to indicate that carefully designed campaigns may well increase turnout, other studies, however, show that more ordinary campaigns are often either affairs of large boredom or, even worse, can be a source of rising levels of cynicism and voter alienation. Findings with regard to campaign effects on turnout inequality as well as the mechanisms of campaign mobilization have remained similarly inconsistent. Therefore, this paper investigates to what extent real-world campaigns actually mobilize or demobilize voters, whether campaigns are suitable to provide more equality in electoral participation and by what mechanisms campaigns may stimulate turnout. Using data from three rolling cross-section surveys as well as from accompanying media content analyses the paper examines the dynamics of campaign mobilization in the German elections of 2005, 2009 and 2013. The findings show that all three campaigns have been able to mobilize substantial parts of the electorate, and, if anything, have reduced turnout inequality. Specifically, campaigns mobilized voters by stirring up public interest and reducing political alienation towards the political parties. The paper concludes that campaigns have strengthened rather than undermined the principles of electoral democracy.