Political Dealignment and the Emergence of New Parties

Political dealignment has shaped European party systems over recent decades. Stable post-war party systems in Western Europe have seen increasing levels of electoral volatility and the emergence of new political parties. Only some of these parties are genuinely new. Most parties that are entering elections are formed by defectors from established parties and mobilize party activists that were previously aligned to existing parties. How are dealignement and the emergence of new parties related? In the paper, I investigate the conditions for establishing new parties and distinguish parties that form out of existing parties from genuinely new parties. A focus on the origin of new parties in elections allows us to better understand mechanisms of accountability and sources of partisan dealignment. New parties may either results from frictions in established parties or reveal electoral demand that was not covered previously. Hence these new parties inform us about problems of democratic accountability through established parties. In the study, I look at established Western democracies and the emergence of new parties for the entire post-war period (1945—2014). This design allows me to compare decades of relative party system stability in the post-war period and recent decades with more volatile party systems in the West. The study is based on an original data about the origin of new parties and allows distinguishing splinter parties from parties that are genuinely new. First, I investigate the conditions for new party entry by looking at government performance, the role of electoral systems and dealignment. Second, I study the conditions for success of new parties and their long term survival. My analysis provides a comprehensive perspective on party dealignement and the emergence of new parties for established post-war democracies and I discuss changes over time and across countries.