The Future that Once Was: Southern and Eastern European Lessons in EU Enlargement Scenario Design

While EU enlargement policy seems to have reached a structural overload since the ‘big bang’ enlargement of 2004, its limitations can be explained by the fact the policy was initially a very precise response to the inner challenges of the geopolitical paradigm of the Cold War. Consequently, it is doubtful that strategies of widening the EU can continue to guide and counterbalance the centripetal deepening of the EU after the demise of the Cold War architecture and its enduring effects. Accordingly, a close examination of the dynamics and unique innovations in enlargement policy principles and methodology -focusing on the illustrative cases of the Spanish EC accession and on that of Central and Eastern Europe- can be decisive in unveiling the contextual factors and outcomes necessary to consolidate a new integrative approach to EU foreign policy. The resulting strategies will have to re-examine the validity and intention of different sets of association and neighborhood policy strands in order to develop a more effective and compelling concentricity in EU's international relations. In sum, this paper aims at elucidating -trough the analysis of transnational archives and relevant Oral History interviews- causal links and conclusions regarding the comparative trajectories of Southern and Eastern enlargements, thus posing the crucial question of whether EU enlargement policy is actually a mere catalyst for change or a policy destination.