Populist Discourses and Electoral Success: Measuring Populism in Party Manifestos

Populism in Europe was until recently associated with the radical right. More recently, populism has also been a feature of the anti-establishment left. While an important body of literature argues that demand side or structural variables are responsible for the rise of this party family (Kitschelt 1995; Jackman and Volpert 1996; Hans-Georg Betz 1998; Nona Mayer 1998), another argues in favour of supply-side explanations and parties’ own abilities to create their own avenues for success (Carter 2004; Mudde 2007; McDonnell and Newell 2011). This paper asks the question, is the degree of populism related to the electoral success of political parties? Using classical standard content analysis of party manifestos in order to measure populism and the ideological location of twelve anti-establishment parties emergent during the past decade, this paper argues that there is a strong correlation between electoral success and the populist score of political parties.