Party System Instability in Europe: Long-and Short-term Changes in Electoral Fortunes of Radical Right Parties

A central theme in electoral research has been the fading of traditional political cleavages and long-standing group loyalties in advanced industrial societies over the recent decades. The emergence of more volatile electorates has coincided with the rise of new parties and the decline of traditional parties. The aim of this paper is to adopt a broad comparative approach to enhance our understanding of party system stability. Aggregate electoral volatility in Europe 1960–2014 is the dependent variable. Focus is on the consequences of the increased salience of the socio-cultural cleavage dimension on electoral mobility: long-term electoral realignment or oscillations in radical right party fortunes? The empirical contribution is the introduction of components that capture different types of swings (direction and magnitude) in the electoral support of parties. Long-term sociostructural and institutional factors as well as short-term political and economic factors are also accounted for.