On the Stability and Consequences of Political Attitudes

To what extent are political attitudes stable or variable at the individual level? Are there differing amounts of movement among different types of attitudes? When they do move, is it real one-time adjustments or random back-and-forth fluctuations? Are the movements in attitudes responsible for changes in fundamental political choices? The evidence at this point is mostly piecemeal. We will draw upon the 2004-2011 panel of the Canadian Election Study to systematically analyze the dynamics and power of various attitudes. This panel not only spans four separate national elections during a very volatile period, it also includes pre- and post-election measurements. Our paper surveys the stability and consequences of a broad array of attitudes. For each type of attitude, we will determine the amount of change that takes place over the short- and long-term. We then estimate the effects of these attitudes and their changes on reversal in vote choice.