Climate diplomacy at the United Nations: Incremental steps, no big bangs

Expectations on the outcome of multilateral climate negotiations differ strongly depending on the perspective. Media and the public wonder why, after 20 years of negotiation, the climate regime has failed to deliver on a comprehensive climate treaty capable of preventing global temperature increase of 2°C. The Copenhagen Conference 2009 failed to deliver this ‘big bang’, the outcome overdue to effectively address climate change. Consequently, media and academic analyses expressed deep disappointment claiming the death of the climate regime. The expectations for the 2011 UNFCCC meeting in Durban could not have been lower. The outcome is a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and the agreement to negotiate a comprehensive climate treaty by 2015 replacing the Kyoto Protocol, which accounts for only 15% of global GHG emissions. While outside observers continue to interpret the Durban outcome as inadequate and the climate regime under life support, negotiators and close observers of the UNFCCC negotiations celebrate the Durban outcome as big success, providing stability for carbon markets and investments in low carbon technologies. Using a social constructivist perspective, this paper analyses the differing interpretations of success and failure of climate negotiations. The measure of success does not only depend on expectations, but also on policy entrepreneurs and the understanding of what multilateral negotiations with universal membership, quasi-veto power voting mechanisms, national economic interests and prevailing North-South conflicts can and cannot deliver. While the UNFCCC is inclusive with a high level of legitimacy, outside expectations are unrealistically high as the UNFCCC is by design only capable of small, incremental steps. Neither negotiations nor climate treaties reduce emissions. Only their implementation into national legislation and low-carbon economic development can address climate change. The UNFCCC serves the purpose of providing a framework for these activities by continuing to negotiate, raising awareness and ambitions among countries.