Leading the Democratic Revolution or Standing in their Way: The Military in the Middle East Decides?

This paper will focus on the following question: what is the cost benefit analysis that the military, in the cases of the Arab Spring, put on the table in order to decide that changing the status quo into a democracy is better than supporting the regime? To answer this question, I rely on a qualitative analysis of the two cases of Egypt and Syria. Specifically I will provide a case study that outlines and highlights the effect of the institutionalization of the military, its economic interests, the effect of the international pressure and the civil society in shaping its decisions towards an uprising. This paper ultimately argues that communal relationship, between the military and the civil authority does not, alone, explain the choice the military makes during an uprising. There are different conditions the military takes in consideration before choosing to support a regime or to participate in its decline.