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Patterns of Time of Voting Decision in Spanish Elections

Elections
Media
Voting
Joan Balcells
Universitat Oberta de Catalunya
Joan Balcells
Universitat Oberta de Catalunya

Abstract

This paper aims at analysing the relation between time of voting decision, partisanship and information exposure during electoral campaigns. Time of voting decision is defined as the moment when electors report having decided which party to vote for. In that respect, voters are usually divided between “pre-campaign deciders” and “campaign deciders”, depending on whether they have decided before or during the period of the election campaign. According to several studies, the number of campaign deciders has experienced a rising trend in many established democracies over the past several years. Why do individuals know which party to vote for before the beginning of the campaign period? Why do they delay the decision until the last weeks? We approach these questions by focusing the attention on the political profile of the voter and on the type of information the voter depends on when making a voting choice. That is to say, we aim at explaining the different characteristics of both pre-campaign and campaign deciders, especially with regard to their information diet. Our analytical interest is twofold. On the one hand, we consider the role played by key variables such as partisanship and exposure to the election campaign in order to advance a model of time of voting decision. On the other, we analyse the impact of different kinds of campaign exposure (and, particularly, the impact of the new media such as the Internet) on the elector’s time of voting decision. Using data from pre-electoral and post-electoral surveys on recent Spanish elections, we will specify different regression models to measure the effects of voter’s political and social characteristics on the moment when the voting decision took place. The paper is expected to contribute to a better understanding of how (and when) electors make up their minds in the context of election campaigns.