The Leadership Coup - An Evolving Genre

The tenure of party leaders in Australia has become much shorter and more precarious. In the 1960s, in the two major parties, both federally and in the six states, no leaders were overthrown by their own parties. Since 1970, there have been 72 successful leadership challenges, including 31 this century. Since 1990, almost one in three leaders has been deposed even before they faced their first election. Electoral ruthlessness is the single most important driver of this increased instability, although other factors to do with performance, especially relations with colleagues, are also important. As would be expected such leadership coups are more than three times as common in opposition as in government. However, coups in governing parties have also become more frequent. Before 2010, in 109 years of Australian federation, three prime ministers had been overthrown by their own members (Menzies 1941; Gorton 1971; Hawke 1991). Then it happened three more times in five years (Rudd 2010, Gillard, 2013, Abbott 2015). Although more frequent, replacing a leader remains a fraught and uncertain process, one in which the media often play an important and disruptive role. As the process has developed, strategies have become more calculating, with leaks being used to great effect. Of all political conflicts, this is the most personal, in which the contenders share an extensive personal relationship, and also one refracted through the media. It is a contest resolved by the party room rather than by the public, and the two don’t always move together. Because until the eruption of crisis, there is a premium on maintainting the appearance of unity, momentum is hard to judge. The build-up to the climactic events is typically suspenseful and dramatic, while the aftermath in terms of party cohesiveness and electoral prospects is variable.