Drastic fluctuation in presidential approval in emerging democracies. The case of Michelle Bachelet in Chile, 2006-2010 and 2014-2015

In late 2009, when completing her first 4-year term in office, Chilean President Michelle Bachelet had 78% approval, the highest for any president since the transition to democracy in 1990. In late 2015, at the end of the first year of her second term as president, Bachelet had a 22% approval, the lowest on record since 1990. Presidential approval is explained by short and long term variables, like economic conditions and political ideology. Given that short term conditions were more favorable in 2014 than in 2009 and ideology did not substantially change in the period, what accounts for the drastic fluctuations in presidential approval? Using polling data from Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP) from the 2006-2010 and 2014-2015 period, we test existing theories on presidential approval and offer an explanation for the sharp swings in presidential approval in Chile.