What is Driving the Decline of Voter Turnout in Iceland?

Voter turnout in Iceland has historically been among the very highest in the world, but in recent elections there has been a sharp decline in turnout there (as in other countries); both in local and general elections. Turnout in general elections went from 87,7% in 2004 to 81,5% in 2013 and average turnout in local elections went from 83,2% in 2002 to 66,5% in 2015. Although still high in international comparison, this sharp decline of turnout in Icelandic elections raises questions about what is driving this development, if it is indicative of a larger democratic problem in Icelandic society (i.e. with regards to political trust and satisfaction) and whether and how this development could be tackled. In a novel academic attempt to survey this particular topic in Icelandic context, this paper uses data from the Icelandic National Election Study (ICENES) – administered after every general election in the period 1983-2013 – and from the Icelandic Local Election Study (ICELES) – administered for the first time after the local elections in 2014, in an attempt to understand low voter turnout. The paper presents descriptive results on this development and finds indications that it has gone together with declining political trust and a changing nature of political participation, along with a “cohort” effect; that of Icelanders born after 1970 consistently voting less than earlier cohorts.