Should it Stay or should it Go? A Natural (quasi)Experiment on Brexit in 10 EU Countries

On June 23 Britain will decide on its EU membership. Should a Brexit occur, it would not only cause deep political and economic consequences in London, but also in other EU capitals. Whether or not the British referendum will trigger a domino effect, leading other states to follow the exit route, is a matter of debate and greatly depends on the results of the Brexit referendum. What is hardly disputable, regardless of the outcome, is that other governments could use Britain’s negotiations with the European Union to make their own requests for major concessions from Brussels while threating to hold similar referenda. But to what extent such a utilitarian approach to the EU membership is supported by Britons and other European citizens? How is this support (or opposition) going to change as the referendum approaches and, finally, results become available? And what factors do influence people’s approval of an accommodating or, vice versa, critical response to similar requests? The paper will answer these questions by exploiting a natural (quasi)experiment. As part of a larger project on political representation in Europe, a survey fieldwork will be conducted in the month of June. In the weeks immediately before and after the British referendum on EU membership a sample of about 15,000 individuals from ten different EU countries (i.e., Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom) will be interviewed. Citizens will be asked questions on the opportunity and consequences of the referendum as well as on the concessions to be given to the UK in order to keep it as a member state. This represents a unique natural opportunity to investigate the perceived benefits of the EU membership when it is under attack. While scrutinizing the evolution of people’s preferences over time, the paper will examine the micro-foundational mechanisms of the determinants of support for or opposition to Britain’s departure from the EU in comparative perspective.