Opposition to sustainable Energy Transitions: An Analytical Framework

In recent years, the costs for renewable energy have plummeted and significant technological progress has been made to integrate renewable energy into national energy systems. It therefore appears to be a foregone conclusion that at this point, countries around the world will swiftly move towards sustainable – that is, decarbonized and decentralized – energy systems. After all, the long-term economic, social, environmental, and even political benefits should are expected to outweigh the initial start-up costs by far. Yet there is nothing inevitable about sustainable energy transitions. The current playing field is still stacked against the rapid introduction of renewable energy due to the economic advantages of established fossil and nuclear industries (e.g., high sunk costs, economies of scale, and written-off investments). Moreover, the costs and benefits of sustainable energy transitions are unevenly distributed. Fierce economic competition thereby inevitably triggers hard-fought political battles. Stakeholders in the current energy system have a lot to lose from a rapid introduction of renewable energy and they often command considerable political resources such as personal networks and well-oiled lobby machines. Moreover, political resistance to energy transitions does not only come from large utilities and operators of nuclear and coal power plants. It also comes from local communities which face the construction of wind farms and high-voltage powerlines in their backyards. And it comes from regular citizens and companies who fear that energy transitions might lead to skyrocketing energy costs and blackouts. Current studies on energy transitions have primarily focused on the actors and institutions that have advanced the introduction of renewable energy in national and regional energy systems. Political resistance to these transitions is often mentioned only in passing. Yet this resistance is real, it is formidable, and it has at times been quite successful in either reversing early gains or at least stalling sustainable energy transitions. Yet we do not know much about the formal and informal veto points and players that oppose the expansion of renewable energy. Who are these players? What are their interests? Who are their main allies? Which arguments do they advance in defense of conventional energy systems? What are their political strategies and tactics? In which institutional environments do they thrive and which political, social, and economic institutions undermine their political strategies? When do they succeed and when do they fail? The proposed paper attempts to provide systematic answers to these questions, starting with the development of an analytical framework that will inform future research on energy transitions. The paper should also be of practical significance. It will allow proponents of energy transitions to better understand their political opponents and develop more effective strategies to overcome resistance to the creation of sustainable energy systems.