Russia as a Rising Power in the Arctic Region: Going Bilateral or Multilateral?

Russian Federation, one of the group of rising powers (BRICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), has been for several years characterised by fast economic growth and desire to re-establish some of the influence in the international affairs as it used to have during the Soviet times. It seeks to re-establish the status not only by military means, but by diplomatic tools as well, which are at the centre of this research. The purpose of this research paper is to map and explain Russian non-military strategies on the specific case of the Arctic region. The main questions are, therefore: What is the attitude of Russian Federation towards the Arctic region? What are the factors contributing to this attitude? The main research hypothesis explains the inter-relation between Russia being a rising power and its inclination for bilateral negotiations. Though it is still a matter of upcoming results, it is phrased as following: Russia is expected to be relatively passive in the Arctic Council, but to be active in bilateral negotiations. The hypothesis rests on two main factors: 1) Economics is at the core national interest for rising powers, which Russia is part of. However, within the Arctic Council high priorities are given to the rights of indigenous peoples and environment protection. 2) The format of the Arctic Council still remains a soft law body, whilst Russia is more interested in institutions producing hard law. The hypothesis will be tested on empirical data from primary and secondary sources. Primary sources will include an original analysis of: - about 10 interviews will have been conducted with Russian and Scandinavian scholars specializing on the Arctic region. The questions will be of descriptive and explanatory character. - content analysis of official documents (press releases and governmental statements) The Arctic region is an excellent choice for three main reasons. First, the conflict in the Arctic over territories and spheres of influence has a high potential to turn into military confrontation. Second, at present this is the last virgin area left in the world that does not belong to any state and which vast natural resources became a reason for dispute between the Great Powers. Thirdly, for Russia it is historically a land of national interests due to natural resources and logistic opportunities. Collaboration in this region makes a perfect example, which strategies Russia implies in newly established multilateral institutions. As indicated by many (Stephen, Kahler, Larson and Shevchenko) rising powers share conservatism towards economics and relative suspicion towards well-established multilateral institutions preferring bilateral relations and being an establishing partner in emerging organizations. This paper intends to develop the argument and test it on the particular case of the Arctic region. Moreover, Russian presence in multilateral institutions is still an under-researched area. This research paper aims at contributing to global discussion by providing an answer on what is Russian attitude in multilateral institutions and what factors contribute to this behaviour.