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Matching populisms: (why) do populist voters vote for populist parties?

Comparative Politics
Political Parties
Populism
Voting
Stijn van Kessel
Queen Mary, University of London
Steven M. Van Hauwaert
Forward College
Stijn van Kessel
Queen Mary, University of London

Abstract

While studies of supply-side populism are extensive, their connections with demand-side dynamics, and particularly the populist characteristics or tendencies of the electorate, require more scholarly attention. With that in mind, we ask two core questions: (i) Do populist voters vote for populist parties, and (ii) to what extent do populist (and other) attitudes contribute to this choice? While existing studies have pointed out that populist parties attract a particular dissatisfied segment of the electorate, we seek to examine in more detail which attitudes are particularly conducive to a populist party vote, and whether there are other parties families otherwise likely to attract ‘populist voters’. Differently put, to what extent are populist attitudes a trigger for a populist vote, or can we even consider them as instigating a populist vote? In addition, we seek to examine the extent to which substantive policy preferences matter: are voters primarily driven by the populist appeal of parties, or rather by their substantive (left-wing or right-wing) policy programmes? For the analysis of the supply-side, we rely on the classification and rationale provided by van Kessel (2015). For the analysis of the demand-side, we use innovative survey data. We use the sole dataset that allows for the cross-national analysis of populist attitudes. Simultaneously, it allows us to relate the populist and policy-related attitudes of voters in nine European countries to these voters’ party choice. Given today’s prevalence of populism, both within parties and the electorates, we expect populist attitudes to be a natural predictor of vote choice; yet, not necessarily of the vote choice for populist parties.