Post Crisis Political Stalemate, the Irish General Election of 2016

The February 2016 general election in the Republic of Ireland will take place in a post economic crisis environment. The 2011 election was the third most volatile in Western Europe since WWII but as Mair (2011) has argued it resulted in a re-ordering of the party system and the election has been termed a ‘conservative revolution’ by Marsh et al (2016). The emergence of several new parties, a new left right divide in politics and the continued salience of many crisis issues mean that 2016 could be an even more transformative election. Opinion polls throughout the campaign predict political stalemate with populist parties and non-party candidates gaining support over the last five years at the expense of the long dominant centrist parties. Using data drawn from the national broadcaster’s (Rádio Teilifís Éireann ) exit poll, this paper will document the central determinants of voting behaviour at the election. The exit poll data is quite unique in that actual voters are surveyed as they leave polling stations. In this way, exit polls eliminate some of the biases present in other types of election surveys. Deploying a multivariate design, the analysis will include partisanship, issue voting and campaign effects. 2016 will see commemorations to mark the centenary of the 1916 Rising which was a milestone on the road to political independence in Ireland. In that vein, the paper will conclude with an assessment of the twenty first century Irish voter and the Irish party system.